Navigate uncertainty with Coface's global risk assessments covering more than 160 countries and 13 sectors.
Momentum for the global economy has been varied moving into 2026. We expect growth of +2.6% this year – a very minor downtick on +2.8% in 2025 – despite an international environment marked by persistent geopolitical, financial and social risks.
After nearly twenty years of stop-start negotiations, the EU and India have finalized one of the most ambitious free trade agreements (FTAs) of the last decade, opening up their markets while protecting sensitive sectors. The benefits are expected to be gradual, but already offer tangible prospects for goods, services, and investments on both sides.
A key metal in the electronics industry — solder alone accounts for 50% of global demand — tin is benefiting greatly from energy and digital transitions. However, supply growth remains limited, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Myanmar, which is expected to lead to a supply deficit as early as 2026, the first since 2021.
To address cost-of-living concerns, the White House’s proposal for a 10% APR cap on credit cards faces a steep climb in Congress. Despite the legislative gridlock, would the interest rate cap save the economy or trigger a localized liquidity crisis for those who need it most? Our North America Economist Marcos Carias explains what’s at stake.
Navigate uncertainty with Coface's global risk assessments covering more than 160 countries and 13 sectors.
In 2026, business insolvencies are expected to rise slightly again, against a backdrop of gradually easing financing costs. Behind this apparent stabilisation lies a still high level of fragility, particularly in the construction, chemical and textile industries. A rise of just 25 basis points in interest rates on business loans would be enough to upset an easing trend.
As the NextGenerationEU program draws to a close, only 58% of the funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility have been disbursed, leaving nearly €270 billion to be disbursed by the end of 2026. This under-absorption weakens the growth momentum and structural objectives set by the plan.
The year 2025 marked a turning point for the global economy. Between trade shocks, Chinese overcapacity and geopolitical tensions, companies must redefine their strategies. In this article, our experts analyze the challenges of 2026 and the resilience needed to face the turbulence ahead.
Two years ago, on November 19, 2023, the Galaxy Leader, a Bahamian-flagged roll-on/roll-off ship chartered by the Japanese company Nippon Yusen, was attacked by the Houthis in the Red Sea. Less than two months after the start of the conflict between Hamas and Israel, this episode marked the beginning of a series of more than 100 attacks on commercial vessels in the area, claimed by the Yemeni organization in support of Hamas.
Last December, the European Commission approved a support plan for the wine industry, which is facing unfavorable economic conditions and growing structural difficulties. Although substantial, this plan only addresses part of the problem for the time being, overlooking the decline in European consumption and export difficulties.
U.S. business bankruptcies just hit their highest level since 2014. Our North America economist Marcos Carias explains what’s driving the surge and whether tariff pressures, supply and demand woes, and retail digitalization could push numbers higher.
Faced with the explosion of AI, data centers are experiencing unprecedented growth, driven by record investments, particularly in the United States. But can this frantic race deliver on the promise of a sustainable transformation of the economy, or does it expose the sector to new risks and major imbalances?
On Oct. 30, Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump met for the first time since 2019, on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea. The two powers reached a tactical agreement allowing the United States to gain time to diversify its sources of rare earth supplies and China to manage deflationary pressures and pursue technological self-reliance.
What do consumer demand, stock prices and household balance sheets have in common? Quite a lot, actually - and it may all be tied to Artificial Intelligence. Our North America economist Marcos Carias dives right in.
Wood has been added to the growing list of products subject to specific tariffs in the United States. These new measures could reshape sourcing strategies and pricing dynamics for importers and manufacturers. Find out what this could mean for your business.
Rice prices have fallen 35% in one year to their lowest level since 2017 (around $360 per ton) following India's lift on export restrictions. After three years of extreme volatility, the market is facing a glut (541 million tons produced in 2024), pushing prices down and upsetting the balance for global producers and importers.
The global economy weathered the trade turmoil of the first half of 2025, but the coming quarters will see a spreading of the longer-term effects. The October 2025 Coface Risk Review analyses global dynamics, placing its focus on the surge in social and political risk, and the strategic challenges facing the Gulf countries.
It’s been a whole six months since Liberation Day — the day the White House announced a wide sweep of global tariffs that sent the market into a panic. So where do things stand now? And who’s really paying for the tariffs? Our North America economist Marcos Carias dives right in.
After nearly three decades of deflation, Japan has experienced a sustained rise in prices since 2022, marking a potential turning point for its economy. This reflation phase was initially triggered by external factors such as surging commodity prices and a weaker yen but has now evolved into a domestic dynamic driven by wage growth and services price increases.
On July 27 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an agreement establishing a basic tariff rate of 15% on most European products entering the United States. This unbalanced compromise avoids the worst but further weakens European competitiveness.
On July 8th, U.S. President Donald Trump announced 50% tariffs on copper from Aug. 1, following a Section 232 investigation initiated by the White House in February. Nonetheless, their scope remains unclear, as there is currently no information on the nature of the taxed products — whether they apply to refined copper, derivative products, etc. Those tariffs are further fueling concerns within the US manufacturing sector, given that nearly half of the country’s copper demand is met through net imports.
China's dominance in the global apparel industry is crumbling, weakened by rising costs, regulatory constraints and unprofitable specialization. Trade policies set by the new U.S. administration could accelerate the diversification of supply chains. Coface identifies the countries set to play a growing role in global clothing production.
In a context of unprecedented geopolitical and trade uncertainty, the global economy is navigating between an expected slowdown and escalation risks. Trump's tariff decisions and tensions in the Middle East are reshaping an unpredictable economic landscape for 2025-2026. In this environment, and in view of the measures already in place, Coface has downgraded 23 sectors and 4 countries.
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Navigate uncertainty with Coface's global risk assessments covering more than 160 countries and 13 sectors.
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